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Risk Management (learn forex online)
Risk Management (learn forex online)
The Importance of Risk Management in Forex Trading
Forex is an exciting and dynamic speculation tool, but it comes with risks similar to other markets, and deserving of the same precautions that should apply in any speculative market. Risk can be mitigated using the proper tools, money management and sound trading practices. Be aware of the risks and ensure you are willing to take those risks, before you act.
Do not take these warnings lightly. Education includes knowing when to act and, perhaps more importantly, when not to act. Also true is that an advantage in one situation could be a disadvantage in another. Acting boldly and seizing an opportunity may be wrong if caution and temperance are required. Before you act, ask yourself if you are honestly making the right move. The old rule of investing in the stock market applies equally in forex trading: Do not invest any amount unless you are fully prepared to lose that amount.
All Traders Lose Sometimes Due to Leverage
Recognize that all traders sometimes find themselves on the wrong side of a trade. Different traders might handle the situation in different ways, but they all must maintain discipline and strive to overcome emotion in their trades. After all, nobody wants to exit a trade at a loss, and most traders would emotionally prefer to stay in a losing trade, hoping that the market will turn around and prove that they were right, after all. However, a trader must strive to detach themselves from emotional ownership of their trades - both winning and losing and make objective decisions based on a realistic and honest appraisal of the present situation.
Money Management Is Key
Investing money wisely means being aware of what you are doing with any particular monetary unit. While you may be able to afford to lose money in the forex market, prudent trading means not putting it all at risk at once. Eventually everyone loses some money. Use only a small percentage of your available funds with each trade. While this limits the amount of profit, it also limits the downside in case of a loss.
Adopt and Maintain a Neutral Trading Style
The excitement of real time trading and the thrill of seeing an investment rise, or fall, can sway anyone. That's why finding an appropriate trading style, and staying with it, is crucial for risk management. Staying detached or objective about the investment while keeping emotions in check allows for the clear thinking required to make appropriate trading decisions. Keeping a neutral outlook as trading occurs allows the larger picture to be evident, and ensures that the planned trading style is fulfilled without being biased by temporary changes.
Use Stop and Limit Orders
Stop and limit orders can be important risk management tools. Be sure to learn how they work, and how they can fit into you trading methods and risk management strategy.
Stop orders are usually used to limit losses in a trade or to lock in profits in the case that the currency pair price moves against the position of the trader. One way a stop order can be used is to place the stop price slightly below the entry price on a buy or long trade or slightly above the entry price on a sell or short trade. If the currency price changes unfavorably, the stop price will be "hit" and the trading platform will automatically close the trade. The trade will be closed at a loss, but not as much of a loss as would occur if the trade remained open, and the currency continued to move against the trade.
A popular stop loss strategy is to use trailing stops. Throughout a profitable trade, the trade moves the stop price as to lock in profits. In a buy, or long currency trade, the trader will move the stop higher as the currency pair price increases. In that way, when the currency market trend reverses, the trailing stop price will be "hit", and the trade will be automatically executed, at a profit. Some trading platforms even automate the movement of trailing stops.
Although stops are an important tool in risk management, something of which to be aware is that the use of stops can lead to losses, particularly if the stop price is set too close. If the stop price is set too close to the entry price, a small dip in price can trigger the stop trade, even though the trade might be proven correct a few minutes later.
Limit Use of Leverage
As noted, leverage can be a useful tool, but know when to use it. Remember that using leverage of any amount means borrowing money. Leverage of 100:1 means a deposit of $1,000.00 can be used for up to $100,000.00 of trading. In this case, an unfavorable change of just 1% of the value of the currency is enough to completely deplete your margin account. To restate this perhaps more powerfully, with leverage of 100:1, a 1% change can result in a 100% loss. The lesson to remember is that leverage allows for dramatic gains, and potentially devastating losses. Be careful with your leverage.
Fundamental and Technical Analysis (learn forex online)
Fundamental and Technical Analysis (learn forex online)
Analysis of the market is not merely a part of trading; it is the essence of forex trading. Market analysis generally takes one of two approaches, or a merging of the two approaches. The first approach, fundamental analysis, considers factors and events, opinions and policies that might impact the future value of a currency. The second approach, called Technical Analysis, involves the study of historic and current currency values and trading volume. Whatever the approach, the objective of analysis-technical, fundamental, or blended-is to attempt to project currency price direction and identify trading opportunities.
Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental analysis for forex traders focuses on factors that might influence currency values, including interest rates, the overall state of affected economies, central bank and government monetary and fiscal policies, Gross National Product, etc. Some of the factors that should be considered in fundamental analysis are described below:
The Economy
While the worldwide recession of 2008 was a factor for all countries, it affected different countries to different extents, and different nations responded to the challenge using varying strategies. Those differences resulted in changes in the relative value of world currencies. In addition to global events and responses, more localized changes in localized economic conditions affect the value of individual currencies. Events that have a detrimental effect on economies tend to decrease the relative values of economies, while those events that have a positive effect tend to increase the value of related currencies. For example, a sustained drought in Australia might result in downward pressure on the Australian Dollar, while an increase in oil prices can result in a jump in the Canadian Dollar.
Political (In)Stability
All major currencies are issued by politically stable countries. However political stability changes over time-sometimes abruptly. Dramatic changes in political stability can affect currency values dramatically by affecting confidence in the currency, and by reducing economic activity. Fundamental analysis of currency trading should include keeping close watch on changes in political stability in related regions, starting with base knowledge of regional political stability. A good source of basic political information on countries is the Central Intelligence Agency of the United States. Their website has a World Factbook and is a good place to start a general analysis of the baseline politics and stability of a country
Government Policy
Government policies - particularly monetary and fiscal policy can have substantial impact on the value of the nation's currency. Nations often use interest rate as an important tool in monetary policy - increasing interest rates to cool economic growth and curb inflation, and decreasing rates to stimulate economies. Fiscal policy also impacts currency values; higher taxation can slow economic growth, while low taxation and spending can stimulate economies. Of course, these factors will affect currency values
Observing Other Participants
Another fundamental aspect of forex trading is the understanding other market participants and the effect they may have on currency values. Governments and Central Banks, private banks and other financial institutions, hedge funds and other speculators may all play a role. Central banks or hedge funds can buy the currency, and raise the price in one day. Large private banks can also affect the market with their activity, but usually only over a long term period. The actions of private speculators can also impact currency prices.
Events and Reports
Agencies of many world governments track statistical data that reveals aspects of the economy. Often, the agency will release the results of their data collection and analysis at regular scheduled intervals. Such reports often relate directly to regional economic conditions, like inflation rates, gross national product, employment rates, trade balance and inflation. Those reports can have a dramatic impact on currency values. The forex trader should be aware of the timing of such reports, and adjust trading strategy appropriately - sometimes simply exiting all related trades (being flat) because of the uncertainty that precedes such reports. Fortunately, the timing of such events is known in advance, and reported widely on online economic calendars.
Other events can also impact currency values dramatically. Such events include meetings of central bank committees or release of national budgets.
Economic Theories and Models
Forex trading is a recent development, but stocks and equities have been studied for a long time, and economic theories and models abound on the best way to analyze information.
These models look at various aspects, such as the activities of business in the economy, and even the most basic psychological attributes such as belief that the country is moving in the right direction. Business activity is a long term indicator of strength in the economy. A widespread belief that a country's fundamental economic indicators are accurate will sustain a currency's value, even if the short term economic outlook may be bleak.
The theories available to the investor include those on currency parity and national balance of payments, and models on interest rates, the role of money, and the types of assets purchased in a country. The data used by these instruments include economic and employment statistics, interest and inflation rates, and sales information such as gross domestic product, trade and capital flows and retail sales. By using this information, the trader can evaluate the fundamentals of a nation's economy, and ensure the basic research is sound
Technical Analysis and Charting
Often, forex markets are studied through the use of charts that show market prices over a period of time. Traditionally, financial charts were drawn by hand. Fortunately, today such charts are available through forex trading platforms, and are available online on websites such as this one http://forex.tradingcharts.com/chart/
Charts are used extensively by traders, to study past patterns of price movement, identify ongoing trends, and to try forecasting future price movement. Technical indicators are often used in conjunction with charts. Simple technical indicators include moving averages. Many complex indicators are available, which involve complex mathematical analysis of price data. Fortunately, online charts do all the calculations automatically, and display the results as overlays on the chart.
Forex charts are usually presented in one of several formats, including line, bar chart and candlestick.
Bar Charts
Perhaps the most popular type of forex chart is known as the bar chart. Bar charts plot price (in the vertical dimension) over a period of time (in the horizontal dimension). Each bar on the chart represents a fixed time period, which can often be selected by the viewer if the chart is being viewed online or through a forex trading platform. Each single bar (or 'tick') on a bar chart illustrates 4 distinct prices for the period of time represented by the chart. Those prices are: open - currency price at the start of the period; high - the highest price during the period; low - the lowest price during the period; and close - the price of the currency at the end of the period.
With experience at reading charts, a trader can visualize market action quickly from a bar chart or can study the chart in depth to identify trends, levels of price support and resistance, indications of potential trend reversal, repeating cycles, and much more. The same capabilities exist in another popular form of chart, which displays the same information, but in a different format.
Candlestick Charts
Like bar charts, candlestick charts plot forex price levels over time. Candlesticks display the same information as bar charts for each "tick": open, high, low and close. However, the presentation of those four prices is dramatically different than in a bar chart.
In a candlestick chart, each individual time period (or tick) is shown as a small graphical image called a candlestick. High and low prices for the period are shown as thin vertical lines at the top and bottom, extending beyond the thicker "main body" of each candlestick. The top and bottom of the main body of each candlestick represent the opening and closing prices for the period, and the color of the candlestick main body signifies which was higher: the closing price or the opening price. Often, a higher close is signified by a white, hollow, green or lightly colored main body, and a lower close is indicated by a solid black or reddish main body.
Traders trained and experienced in the use of candlestick charts look for visual patterns, and specific candlestick formations that signal potential trend changes or other market activity.
Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis goes hand-in-hand with forex charting. Technical analysis attempts to forecast future price movement through the mathematical analysis of past price action. For many traders, technical analysis is the most important tool for examining the market. Technical analysis involves the study of past and forex prices-often though the use of charts-with the objective of predicting future prices movements and trends, and identifying opportunities for profitable forex trading.
Many traders advocate technical analysis as the most (or only!) reasonable method to attempt to predict prices. That opinion is based on the idea (and cliche) that the "market action discounts everything". That statement means that all factors that can be known that can impact currency prices are already reflected in the currency price. (Of course, few technical traders would dare ignore pending events, such as the release of economic reports discussed in the section above.).
In addition to the belief that the "market action discounts everything, fundamental analysis is based on two additional ideas:
Prices move in trends: this truism is apparent by observing a forex chart. Currency prices tend to move in the same direction for periods of time.
Market history repeats itself: Again, some examples of repetitive cycles can be observed on almost any forex chart. However, this premise proposes an idea more subtle: that for a set of general setup conditions in currency price history, currency prices are likely to respond in direction and manner similar to their response to the same initial conditions in the past.
Various simple tools can be used in technical analysis, such as moving averages, trend lines and support levels, or the advanced trader might choose from a wide range of advanced analyses and theories including relative strength index, Fibonacci studies, cycles, and many more.
Some popular fundamental analyses include Elliott Wave Theory, Fibonacci Studies, and Pivot Points.
The Elliott Wave Theory holds that markets are affected by the psychology of the population, and move in response to this psychology in a predictable pattern. The theory was developed in the 1920's for stock markets and is now being used in forex trading.
Fibonacci Studies look at the relationship of numbers and apply the same sequence analysis to the forex market, to project the direction the market will move.
Pivot Points refers to the point at which the currency changes direction and increases or decreases over the day. Information from the previous day is examined to see where the pivot point will be for the current trading day.
All of these tools provide the trader with the perspective needed to ensure trades are accurate and profit is maximized.
Many books have been written about fundamental analysis, and there is much much more to learn on the topic.
Why Trade Forex? (learn forex online)
Why Trade Forex? (learn forex online)
Trading in the foreign exchange market can be dynamic, exciting and lucrative. While investors have many options in the global investment and speculation marketplace, forex offers advantages over other types of speculative financial vehicles.
Compared with Futures and Stocks
In some ways forex trading is much like stock trading. Buying stocks and other equities for the long term is an investment. Buying the same products to profit from short term price movement is speculation. Most often, traders trade foreign currency in the forex market for speculative reasons that can be compared to the short term purchase of stocks or other equities. Most often, the goal of forex traders is to buy currencies, hold them for a short period, and then sell them with the intent of profiting by favorable changes in price.
Despite these similarities to futures and equities trading, the forex market differs from futures and equities markets in advantageous ways:
24 hour market
Whereas futures, and especially stocks and other equities are usually only traded during business hours, forex is traded in a 24 hour market. Investors can participate in the market at any time, 24 hours per day, excluding only a short period on weekends. If you have Internet access forex Brokers connect can connect traders to their trading platform, to allow access from anywhere at almost any time.
Ease of Short-Selling
A trade is considered to be "long" when it involves the purchase of an asset. A trade is considered to be "short" when it is a sale of property not yet owned, or perhaps purchased on margin.
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Therefore, short selling refers to the practice of selling an asset that you do not yet own. Short sellers benefit when the price of the asset decreases. Short selling in huge volumes can help to drive down the price of a stock to fall to the profit of the short sellers. For that reason, short selling in stock markets is restricted to help prevent manipulation of stock prices and unfair opportunities for some investors.
Not so in forex markets.
In fact, even the concept of "short selling" has less meaning for forex trades. In the forex market, every trade necessarily includes a purchase of one currency and a sale of another-essentially a long-buy and a short-sell simultaneously.� Whether the market is rising or falling is merely one factor or a matter of perspective in trading currencies.
For example, if a trader expects the U.S. Dollar to fall relative to the Canadian Dollar, he would sell USD (U.S. Dollars) and buy CAD (Canadian Dollars). The transaction generates both a long position in Canadian Dollars, and a short position in US Dollars - a net neutral position, until the relative price of the currencies changes.
For that reason, short-selling is not an issue, and is not regulated in the forex market.
Immediate Order Execution and Price Certainty
Stock or futures transactions can take time to occur. From the moment that an order is placed, a transaction in futures or equities can take minutes or even hours to complete, depending on the technologies employed and the volume of trading in the marketplace. Those delays can be challenging to the nerves and to the back account, since in the time that the order takes to execute (or "fill"), the equities or futures price might have changed substantially-a factor usually called slippage.
In contrast, online forex transactions are usually immediate; they are effective as soon as the trade order is submitted by the click of a computer mouse. Because of that immediacy, the trade price is known at the time of the order. There is no surprising slippage, and seldom any of the uncertainty that accompanies stocks or futures orders.
Manipulation Is More Difficult; Analysis Is Easier
Sometimes markets are susceptible to manipulation, especially if they are fairly small or if there few trades taking place. Those same conditions can make a market difficult to analyze, because prices can be volatile and subject to change in response to relatively small pressures.
The forex market is different.
The forex market is the largest financial market in the world. According to the 2007 Triennial Survey done for the BIS (Bank for International Settlements), average daily trading in the forex market is $3.2 trillion. By comparison, the global equity market in 2006 was approximately $280 billion, or 10 times smaller than the forex market. This market is huge, not only in terms of dollars, but also in terms of geography.
Forex trading occurs around the globe in countless locations, and not in centralized exchanges such as are used for futures and equities trading. While large financial and commercial institutions might dominate other markets, the size and decentralized nature of the forex market makes it more difficult to manipulate. Even the Central Banks of large nations usually do not have the capital to influence forex markets directly (although it is important to understand that Central Banks can influence currency rates through other means, such as through monetary policy and interest rates).
This large size also means that forex is almost a pure market, in an economic theory sense, with each party entering the market on equal terms. This makes meaningful analysis of the market more likely, as economic models and technical analyses are more easily applied to this orderly market.
Influence by Analysts Less Likely
In equities and stocks, industry and market pundits sometimes develop a large following of speculators. Those followers can represent a substantial amount of capital-enough to cause movements in smaller or less liquid markets. The huge size of the forex market-particularly in commonly-traded currencies-makes it resistant to pressures exerted by the followers of individual market analysts.
The forex markets also provide a more subtle balance that helps curb influence and overt manipulation. This balance is provided through the responsiveness of the forex marketplace.
When parties to a transaction have equal knowledge, both are more likely to be satisfied with the result. In the forex market, participants come closer to equal knowledge than in other markets because the market reacts quickly to events as they occur. The advantage of this characteristic is that any analysis that is flawed will not have an effect over a long period of time. Any flaw will soon be revealed by the market action itself.
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The Forex Market Is Less Complex Than Equities Market
Currencies in the forex market are relatively simple to follow, with only 10 major currencies and less than 100 minor currencies. By contrast, futures and stock markets are much more complicated, with tens of thousands of stocks and hundreds of futures. Plus, the complex market landscape is continuously changing, as more corporations form or disappear in the stock market, or as new commodities are added or removed from the futures market.
Price Certainty and Liquidity
The forex market is the largest in the world with $3.2 trillion changing hands each day. It is also very volatile, as traders can react to situations in real time and the market moves in response to those reactions. Yet the Internet basis and resulting quick trade execution of forex markets provides for both liquidity and price certainty. A trader can enter or exit the market at any time in most currencies, making it a liquid market. Since trades are made in real time, the price locked when the trade is made, resulting in none of the slippage experienced in equities or futures markets, and therefore providing price certainty.
No Commissions
Another advantage of forex trading over stocks and futures is the commission structure. Most forex brokers do not charge a commission on a trade. Their fee is a share of the "spread" of each trade, which is the difference between the buying and selling price, (the bid and ask prices).
Limited Loss compared to Other Margin Accounts
The online structure of forex trading has a further advantage not found in the futures and stock markets. Futures, forex and (sometimes) equities are traded "on margin"-meaning that the trader has usually borrowed funds to purchase the asset. In all three types of margin accounts, the trader generally needs to keep funds on deposit in a special margin account. When the traders account suffers a loss, funds in the margin account are used to cover the loss. In futures and equities margin trading, the losses can exceed the funds deposited in the margin account; when that happens, the trader is liable for the loss, and must repay the brokerage for the losses in excess of funds deposited in their margin account.
This usually cannot happen with forex trading.
Forex positions are usually automatically exited (or offset) by the broker's trading platform before the traders account goes into deficit. This means that any loss is usually limited to the size of the margin account.
To restate this important point, for clarity: in other markets, halts in trading, poor liquidity, or a delay between margin account deficit and the closing of an open position can result in a substantial drop below the margin funds available in the trader's account. In such cases, the trader is liable for all losses in equities or futures margin trading-even beyond the amount in the traders' margin account. In contrast, forex traders are not exposed to risks beyond the value of their margin account.
Despite these advantages, forex trading does share some pitfalls with other types of speculation�
Why to Not Trade Forex
The forex market involves risk, perhaps too much for some people.
The old adage of speculative investing applies to forex trades, just as it does to stock and futures speculators: Do not invest any amount unless you are fully prepared to lose that amount. The truth is: you can lose it all.
The availability of margin accounts (leverage) is what increases the risk, since your relatively small account deposit can control-taking both profits and losses-on a huge amount of currency. Leverage is often higher in forex trading than it is in other markets. The increased leverage offers more opportunity for profit, but an equal increase in opportunity for loss. With increased leverage comes increased responsibility.
In other markets, leverage is available, but at a much lower rate, around 10:1. In the forex market, leverage of 100:1 to 25:1 is common. This means that with a deposit of $1,000, a trader can and trade up to $100,000. With that much leverage, market prices do not need to change dramatically before the entire $1,000.00 is lost.
Forex is an exciting and dynamic investment tool, but the same precautions apply as with any market. Risk can be mitigated using the proper tools, sound trading practices and discipline. Learn about the market, be aware of the risks and ensure you are willing to take those risks before you trade.
Getting Started in Forex Trading (learn forex online)
Getting Started in Forex Trading (learn forex online)
How to Start
As with any new venture, and indeed, more than is true with most ventures, a reasoned approach to forex trading is desired. Although there may be many ways to get started in forex trading, the following steps should be considered:
Step 1: Education
As with any new venture, forex trading requires a certain amount of education before trying. Part of the education process involves learning about the world of forex trading, but an important part includes education about the kind of person you are.
Trading, perhaps particularly forex trading requires character traits that are not present in everyone. forex trading requires a particular mix of characteristics, including intelligence, courage and discipline, and insight into market or mass psychology, perhaps a particular intuitive insight into market forces, and drive, determination and patience. If you do not have the particular mix of characteristics required to be a forex trader, this is not necessarily a personal shortcoming. Not everyone can be a trader. Some people are good at art, some at business, some at music, some at math, and some at trading forex. Even if trading is for you, becoming a successful trader will require patience, effort, and experience.
The first step is to learn about forex. This site is designed to provide the basics of forex trading. Also study currencies. This includes basic information about the currency and the country or region that uses it, as well as the fundamental factors that influence currencies. After that, learn about technical analysis and how most traders depend on it for most of their decisions.
Step 2: Decide Where To Trade
Once your education is well underway, the next step is to choose a broker. Trading in the forex market is done through a broker or dealer, who provides a trading platform and services that facilitate forex trading though the Internet.
There are many factors to consider when choosing a forex broker. Those factors include:
•Account type: Various accounts types can be offered by brokerages. While individual brokerages might use different terminology, in general account types might include: Full Size, for currency trade lot sizes of around $100,000; Mini around $10,000; and Micro accounts for lots of $1,000 and sometimes less.
•Minimum account balance: Deposit sizes are set by the margin requirements. Various brokers allow trading with various minimum account balances.
•Leverage: The ratio of margin requirement to value of currency pair traded. This can vary dramatically from brokerage to brokerage.
•Platform: The software platforms offered by brokerages differ in ways such as ease of use, reliability and features.
•Regulation: Not all brokers are regulated, so traders must be careful operating in countries without national regulatory bodies.
•Service: The customer service you receive from the brokerage can also affect your trading experience and your profits/losses.
For more information on opening an account, read the section Opening a Forex Account.
Step 3: Practice What You Have Learned
The forex market offers numerous opportunities to practice trading. Brokers provide demonstration accounts with all the real time dynamics of trading but with no expense or risk of loss. Use the demo account to test and increase your knowledge, and to develop and test your trading strategies. It makes sense that you should be able to consistently profit in a demo account before starting to trade with real money. In fact, you might often hear that the psychology of trading with real money makes it much harder to profit when trading with real money and real risk. Be patient during this period. Learn to trade "on paper" (using a demo account) before risking real money.
Step 4: Open a Real Forex Account
Once you've practiced enough and feel ready, it's time to open a real account. Remember the risk of losing your money. To reduce the potential loss (or profit) you might start with a micro or mini sized account.
Going forward
Start Small
With your account open, go ahead and make a deposit to allow trading. Remember to start small and use only money that you can afford to lose. If money lost means less funds are available for the essentials of living, like food for yourself or your children, go back to the practice accounts and wait until you are wealthier before entering the forex market.
Be Cautious
Even if you are honestly ready and able to enter the forex market, ease into it. Trade cautiously; follow the currency pair closely and don't put all of your money into the market at one time. Think of the initial time and money invested to be an investment in education. You might get lucky initially, but it is quite likely that the initial margin account will be lost. Take your time; the forex market is not a get-rich-quick scheme, it is only learned through time and experience.
Gradually Expand Your Horizons
With experience comes peace of mind. Once you have that peace of mind that you are capable in the forex market, and as the trading experience and successes mount, slowly increase the amount of trading. However, always be disciplined and cautious. Even experienced traders lose money. Ensure your trading style works for you and�then stick to it.
Learn Forex - Online course for new traders
Learn Forex - Online course for new traders
Introduction
The word "forex" is a contraction of the words "foreign exchange"; it is sometimes abbreviated further, and simply called "FX". Forex provides opportunities for speculation, and that is likely what stimulated your curiosity.
Forex is simply the trading of currencies. In its broadest sense, forex includes all commercial and speculative buying and selling of all the world's currencies, making it the largest market in the world. In a forex trade, one currency is purchased while another currency is simultaneously sold; in other words, one currency is exchanged for the one being bought. The term forex properly refers to all currency trading done anywhere in the world; however, in practice, and in the context of this website, the word is often used to refer specifically to the trading of currencies by speculators.
Astoundingly, the forex market has tripled in size from $1.1 trillion traded per day to $3.2 trillion per day in just over 10 years, and it has only been widely operating for about 20 years, according to the most recent Triennial Survey of the Bank for International Settlements. By comparison, all of the stock exchange activity worldwide is about $2.8 billion per day or about 10 times smaller.
Forex speculation involves risk, and inherent in risk is potential profit; the more at risk, the more potential profit.
The forex market is huge: truly a global marketplace, operating all the time, with just a brief cooling off period on weekends. Due to this size and global scope, prices can be observed and traded, but not easily manipulated.
Forex rates can be affected by events in your backyard or anywhere in the world. When such events affect the value of a currency, the currency value can often tend to trend in a particular direction for a period of time. Analysis of historical forex market action in light of current market conditions (known as technical analysis), possibly combined with consideration of global events and markets (fundamental analysis) can help the forex speculator gain insight into currency markets that might allow the trader to project future price movements. However, such insight and potential success in forex speculation requires experience, commitment, discipline and a perhaps a special type of intelligence, and will come only at an investment in time, experience and financial loss. forex trading is not for everyone, but it can afford an opportunity for excitement and profit for the right person.
Where Does Forex Trade?
Particularly for private speculators, forex trading occurs online. Most private forex traders participate from home or office, over their Internet-connected desktop or laptop computers. In fact, the Internet helps explain the dramatic growth of foreign currency speculation. Individual traders, perhaps just like you, all over the world can participate in this online market. Traditionally, futures and equities trading only occurred in established exchanges, where parties can meet and agree to a trade. Over time, these exchanges have become subject to stringent regulations to monitor and moderate activity. Forex is termed "off-exchange trading", or "OTC" (over-the-counter) as each party deals directly with each other, where ever they may be. With this freedom comes some risk, As well, it is subject to very limited regulations.
How Does the Forex Market Work?
Until the 1970's, and for the previous 100 years, the value of most currencies was tied in some way to the value of gold. In 1944 this "gold standard" was replaced by the Bretton Woods Agreement which valued the United States dollar against gold, and all other currencies against the US dollar. In 1975 that agreement fell apart and a system of floating exchange rates was widely adopted, leading to fluctuations in currency values in an open market-and laying the foundation for foreign exchange speculation.
Today, trading in foreign currencies by speculators usually takes place through a forex broker or dealer, who provides the trading platform to transact forex trades. Such trades occur in currency pairs, such as USD/JPY (United States Dollars/Japanese Yen). Note that two currencies are always involved in a forex trade, with one being purchased while the other is being sold.
The forex trader will generally hold the purchased currency (called a position) for a period of time, intending to profit when the prices of the two currencies change favorably. The transaction is completed, or the position is closed, when the opposite currency is bought and the other sold. Profit is calculated by the difference in the buying and selling price.
Different brokers offer different services, and traders need to be careful their broker is serving their best interests. Each broker provides demonstration or practice accounts, where a new trader can play with virtual money until they feel comfortable opening a real account. Analysis can be completed and orders are placed online, at the trader's request.
Why Trade Forex?
The profit potential is why participants enter the market. But why would a speculator choose to trade forex instead of equities or futures?
Forex offers several advantages over speculative trading in futures, stocks and other equities. Eight major currency pairs dominate most currency trading, so it is a much simpler market to follow for most traders. The vast majority of trades involve the United States Dollar, while the Euro, British Pound and Japanese Yen are also widely traded.
Although most currency speculation occurs between a relatively small number of currencies, many brokerages offer trading in a much wider range of less commonly-traded currencies.
Some prospective traders looking to participate in speculation are attracted by the low account balances required to open a forex account with some brokerages.
CAD Surges As Canada Retail Sales Expands More Than Expected in July
09/25/2012 - 12:58:00 (DailyFX)
The Canadian dollar surged against the U.S. dollar as Canadian retail trade expanded faster than expected in July. Sales grew at its fastest pace in nine months, with a jump in new car sales leading broad-based gains.
THE TAKEAWAY: [Canada July retail sales rose faster than expected, fastest pace in nine months] > [Stronger spending to boost Canadian economy amid weaker building and employment] > [CAD bullish]
Canadian retail trade expanded faster than expected in July, with a jump in new car sales leading broad-based gains. Ottawa-based Statistics Canada reported today that retail sales climbed 0.7 percent in July from a month earlier, the fastest pace in nine months, following a revised decline of 0.3 percent in June. July’s figure beats the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, which had projected month-on-month growth of 0.2 percent.
The rise in household spending was seen across eight of 11 sectors, including a 1.7 percent increase for motor vehicle and parts dealers. Sales excluding autos grew 0.4 percent in July, which also exceeded economist forecasts for a 0.3 percent gain.
The boost in consumer spending will help fuel the Canadian economy. However, the impact of stronger spending will be tempered by recent declines in wholesale sales, building permits and employment, which is likely to dampen speculation for a rate rise by the Bank of Canada in coming months.
USDCAD 1-minute Chart: September 25, 2012
Chart created using Market Scope – Prepared by Tzu-Wen Chen
The Canadian dollar surged against the U.S. dollar following the release of the stronger-than-expected retail sales figures. At the time this report was written, the loonie remained higher against the greenback, with the USDCAD pair trading at C$0.9767.
--- Written by Tzu-Wen Chen, DailyFX Research
DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market
Canadian Dollar Jumps On Higher Retail Sales Print
Canadian Dollar Jumps On Higher Retail Sales Print
09/25/2012 - 08:55:00 (RTTNews)
(RTTNews) - The Canadian dollar edged higher in early New York deals Tuesday following a report showed that the nation's retail sales in July rose well-above last month's reading.
Canada's retail sales rose 0.7 percent to C$39.0 billion in July, led by higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, and general merchandise stores, statistics Canada said in a report today.
This was much higher than the market expectations of a 0.3 percent increase and well above its revised 0.3 percent drop recorded in the previous month. In volume terms, retail sales rose 0.6 percent.
Stripping out autos, retail sales rose 0.4 percent, beating forecasts for a 0.3 percent increase.
The Canadian dollar that fell to a session's low of 1.2687 against the euro around 8:00 am ET recaptured almost 36-pips after the retail sales print to reach a high of 1.2651.
The euro was notably lower in the morning on speculation that Bundesbank is checking legality of the European Central Bank's recently announced bond buying program.
German news paper Bild reported that Bundesbank could bring the issue before the European Court of Justice as the OMT program could violate the treaties for direct financing of state deficits.
The common currency pared its losses ahead of the meeting of Chancellor Angela Merkel and ECB President Mario Draghi in Berlin.
The Italian Treasury raised 3.937 billion euros from the sale of its zero coupon bonds known as CTZ, which was close to the top target of 4 billion euros set for the sale. The yield on the zero-interest bearing security fell to 2.53 percent from 3.064 percent in the previous sale on August 28.
Germany's consumer confidence is set to remain unchanged in October, easing fears of the economy slipping into a recession, survey results from market research group GfK showed. The forward-looking consumer sentiment index came in at 5.9 in October, unchanged from September and matched economists' expectations.
The Canadian dollar also gained almost 35-pips to reach a high of 0.9768 against the greenback after the report, snapping back from a session's low of 0.9811. On the upside, the loonie may find target around the 0.9730 level.
Rebounding from previous session's 12-day low of 79.23 against the yen, the Canada's currency advanced to 79.67 around 8:30 am ET. The loonie-yen pair is presently worth 79.62 with 80.0 seen as the next likely barrier on the upside.
Looking ahead, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index and the Federal House Finance Agency's house price index-both for July, new home sales for August, consumer confidence and the Richmond Fed's manufacturing index-both for September are the key data to watch in the North American session.
For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com
Copyright(c) 2012 RTTNews.com. All Rights Reserved
Dollar Mixed Following Strong Consumer Confidence Report
Dollar Mixed Following Strong Consumer Confidence Report
09/25/2012 - 13:03:00 (RTTNews)
(RTTNews) - The dollar is currently trading mixed compared to its major competitors on Tuesday. The currency has weakened in comparison to the Euro, but has gained ground against the Japanese Yen.
The U.S. consumer confidence data for September came in stronger than expected and the home price index also showed notable growth. Investors are also waiting to hear what transpires during the meeting between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and ECB President Mario Draghi in Berlin.
Germany cannot decouple from Europe and the global economy, Chancellor Angela Merkel said Tuesday. Germany is not an island, but a strong exporting nation, she said at a conference organized by the German Industry Association in Berlin.
She observed that there is a lack of confidence in financial markets about the ability of the governments to repay its debt. It would have been better if the European Court of Justice had been granted powers to monitor the fiscal pact, Merkel noted.
Rating agency Standard & Poor's cut Eurozone's economic forecasts for this year and next on Tuesday, saying the 17-nation economy is entering a new period of recession.
The firm expects the euro area economy to shrink 0.8 percent this year, which is worse than the 0.7 percent contraction forecast in July. For 2013, S&P sees flat growth in the single currency bloc, compared to 0.3 percent forecast in July.
European Court Of Justice may soon be engaged to clarify the doubts regarding the legality of the European Central Bank's recently announced bond-purchase program, Germany's Bild reported on Tuesday.
According to the newspaper, the ECB and Germany's Bundesbank has employed in-house layers to check if the program breached the EU treaties, both in terms of proportion and time.
The dollar rose to $1.2885 versus the Euro early Tuesday, but has since pulled back to around $1.2945.
Germany's consumer confidence is set to remain unchanged in October, survey results from market research group GfK showed Tuesday, which slightly eased fears of the economy slipping into a recession. The forward-looking consumer sentiment index came in at 5.9 in October, unchanged from September and matched economists' expectations.
French business confidence remained unchanged in September, but was markedly below its long-term average, a report from the statistical office Insee showed Tuesday. The headline synthetic index was at 90 in September, unchanged from August. Economists expected the reading to edge down to 89.
The greenback has been bouncing back and forth, in comparison to the pound sterling Tuesday, between the $1.6260 and $1.6210 levels.
The buck has rebounded from a week and a half low of Y77.649 versus the Japanese Yen Tuesday, to around Y77.900.
Home prices in major U.S. metropolitan areas showed a notable annual rate of growth in the month of July, according to a report released by Standard & Poor's on Tuesday.
The report showed that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index rose by 1.2 percent in July compared to the same month a year ago. Economists had been expecting the index to increase by about 1.1 percent year-over-year.
With consumers considerably more optimistic about the short-term outlook, the Conference Board released a report on Tuesday showing a much bigger than expected improvement in U.S. consumer confidence in the month of September.
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index jumped to 70.3 in September from a revised 61.3 in August. Economists had expected the index to climb to 64.8 from the 60.6 originally reported for the previous month.
For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com
Copyright(c) 2012 RTTNews.com. All Rights Reserved
USDJPY Rallies after Consumer Confidence Soars to Seven-Month Highs
USDJPY Rallies after Consumer Confidence Soars to Seven-Month Highs
09/25/2012 - 14:28:00 (DailyFX)
Confidence among American consumers in September rose back to its highest level since February, a potential sign that the Federal Reserve’s new QE program has raised hopes for a stronger recovery in the US.
THE TAKEAWAY: USD Consumer Confidence (SEP) > 70.3 versus 63.1 expected, from 61.3 > USDJPY BULLISH
Despite weak headline growth and dimming labor market prospects, the US consumer is nearly as confident as they were near the start of the year, according to the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence index released today. The sentiment gauge rose to 70.3 from 61.3, cruising past the 63.1 expected.
There are a few reasons why consumers may be becoming more confident despite numerous headwinds: housing prices have started to rebound; stock markets are near all-time highs; and the Federal Reserve has unleashed a massive (truly unprecedented in nature) balance sheet expansion. In part, these are the same factors influencing American voters’ decisions headed into the US Presidential Election: it is of no surprise that the Consumer Confidence index has risen alongside with President Barack Obama’s polling figures in recent weeks.
USDJPY 1-minute Chart: September 25, 2012
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Christopher Vecchio
Ahead of and following the release, the USDJPY was on the move higher, trading up from 77.74 to as high as 77.92. However, at the time this report was written, the USDJPY had fallen back to 77.84. Elsewhere, the US Dollar was weaker, with the EURUSD trading up to 1.2967 from 1.2944, while the AUDUSD rallied from 1.0447 to as high as 1.0463.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com
Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX
To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to cvecchio@dailyfx.com
USD Index Maintains Short-Term Trend, AUD Rally At Risk On RBA Policy
USD Index Maintains Short-Term Trend, AUD Rally At Risk On RBA Policy
09/25/2012 - 15:40:00 (DailyFX)
The greenback appears to be regaining its footing during the North American trade, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index paring the decline to 9,798, and the reserve currency may continue to consolidate over the next 24-hours of trading as risk sentiment wanes.
Index
Last
High
Low
Daily Change (%)
Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index
9808.62
9830.81
9798.69
-0.16
64.05%
Although the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) remains 0.21 percent lower from the open, the recent weakness in the greenback may be short-lived as the reserve currency maintains the upward trending channel from earlier this month. As the 30-minute relative strength index bounces back ahead of oversold territory, the rebound from the September low (9,740) looks poised to gather pace, but the dollar may struggle to hold its ground should Fed officials continue to strike a highly dovish tone for monetary policy. As the FOMC continues to embark on its easing cycle, the bearish sentiment surrounding the U.S. dollar may gather pace ahead of the October 24 meeting, but we may see the central bank strike an improved outlook for the region as the recovery gradually gathers pace.
Although the slew of positive developments coming of the world’s largest economy fueled risk-appetite, the data certainly dampens the Fed’s scope to ease monetary policy further, and the central bank may strike a more neutral tone for monetary policy as the new quantitative easing program gets underway. However, as central bank dove Charles Evans is scheduled to speak later today, the Chicago Fed President may talk up speculation for additional monetary support, and the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the dollar as the FOMC keeps the door open to expand its balance sheet further. As the relative strength index on the daily chart maintains the downward trend from the end of May, we will look for further declines over the near-term, and we would need to see a bullish breakout in the oscillator to flip our near-term bias on the greenback.
Three of the four components advanced against the greenback, led by a 0.32 percent advance in the Australian dollar, but the high-yielding currency may come under pressure over the remainder of the week should the central bank show a greater willingness to lower the benchmark interest rate further. Indeed, the Reserve Bank of Australia is scheduled to release its Financial Stability Review later tonight, and the central bank may continue to highlight the slowdown in China – Australia’s largest trading partner – as the region faces a growing risk for a ‘hard landing.’ As the RBA is scheduled to convene next week, market participants are pricing an 68 percent chance for a 25bp rate cut according to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, and we may see the central bank carry its easing cycle into the following year as the region continues to face an uneven recovery.
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.
To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.
Join us to discuss the outlook for the major currencies on the DailyFX Forums
Meet the DailyFX team in Las Vegas at the annual FXCM Traders Expo, November 2-4, 2012 at the Rio All Suite Hotel & Casino. For additional information regarding the schedule, workshops and accommodations, visit the FXCM Trading Expo website.
DailyFX provides forex news on the economic reports and political events that influence the currency market.
Learn currency trading with a free practice account and charts from FXCM.
Market News provided by DailyFX
Pound Trades Lower Against Most Major Rivals
Pound Trades Lower Against Most Major Rivals
09/25/2012 - 12:36:00 (RTTNews)
(RTTNews) - The British pound traded lower against most of its major counterparts in New York mid-day deals on Tuesday.
Extending its European session's downtrend, the sterling declined further against the euro in today's New York session and edged down to 0.7988 at around 12:10 pm ET, compared to yesterday's close of 0.7974.
In the European session, Germany, Europe's largest economy released some reports as Bundesbank is checking the legality of European Central Bank's recently announced bond buying program.
Germany's consumer confidence is set to remain unchanged in October, easing fears of the economy slipping into a recession, survey results from market research group GfK showed.
The forward-looking consumer sentiment index came in at 5.9 in October, unchanged from September and matched economists' expectations.
In a meeting held by the German Chancellor Angela Merkel with European Central Bank President Mario Draghi in Berlin, Merkel said Germany cannot decouple from Europe and the global economy.
Germany is not an island, but a strong exporting nation, she said at a conference organized by the German Industry Association in Berlin.
She observed that there is a lack of confidence in financial markets about the ability of the governments to repay its debt. It would have been better if the European Court of Justice had been granted powers to monitor the fiscal pact, Merkel noted.
She said the member countries should do more to reduce their unit labor cost, instead of demanding Germany to raise its cost so as to lower imbalances in the euro area.
Against its Swiss counterpart, the pound continued its previous session's downtrend and presently trading near 1.5161, compared to 1.5183 hit late New York Monday.
The British currency also edged down versus the US dollar in today's afternoon deals and dropped to 1.6213 by about 12:30 pm ET from previous session's multi-day high of 1.6270.
In economic news from U.S., the Conference Board released a report showed that its consumer confidence index jumped to 70.3 in September from a revised 61.3 in August
Risk disclaimer (risk warning)
Risk disclaimer (risk warning)
The risk disclaimer is meant to inform the user of the potential financial risks of engaging in foreign exchange trading. The transaction of such financial instruments known as forex, fx, or currency, and dealt on a valued basis known as 'spot' or 'forward', 'day trading' and 'option', can contain a substantial degree of risk. Before deciding to undertake such transactions with Easy-Forex LTD (hereinafter Easy-Forex), and indeed, any other firm offering similar services, a user should carefully evaluate whether his/her financial situation is appropriate for such transactions. Trading foreign exchange may result in a substantial or complete loss of funds and therefore should only be undertaken with risk capital. The definition of risk capital is funds that are not necessary to the survival or well being of the user. Easy-Forex™ strongly recommends that a user, who is considering trading foreign exchange products, read through all the main topics contained in the Easy-Forex™ website so that he/she may obtain a clear and accurate understanding of the risks inherent to fx trading. Opinions and analysis on potential expected market movements contained within the Easy-Forex™website are not to be considered necessarily precise or timely, and due to the public nature of the Internet, Easy-Forex™ cannot at any time guarantee the accuracy of such information. Trading online, no matter how convenient or efficient it may be, does not necessarily reduce the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and Easy-Forex™ does not accept any responsibility towards any customer, member or third party, acting on such information contained on the website as to the accuracy or delay of information such as quotations, news, and charts derived from quotations.
Are you ready to join the thrill?
Are you ready to join the thrill?
Forex trading, the highly attractive marketplace, with a daily volume of 2.5 trillion dollars, has become the largest arena on earth. It’s about time that you, like millions of other individual investors, join this market, which is accessible for everyone worldwide, around the clock, from any computer.
This Forex e-book has everything you need
This book shows you everything you need to know to start trading Forex. It addresses the reader at eye level, in a friendly and simple manner. Yet, it provides a professional study of the most popular techniques implemented today by Forex traders worldwide. This book offers useful and valuable background, including technical methods, trading tips, Forex glossary, chart reading, and financial indicators used in Fundamental Analysis.
A word about this e-book’s approach
This book reflects years of experience in Forex trading and Forex platform operation, parallel to Forex education, including seminars, printed publications and academic studies. Such experience was brought to this book, to provide all levels of traders the training and the essentials of Forex trading.
With the help of this guide, you will soon be ready to start trading Forex. In fact, you can start today, while beginning with small amounts and gradually obtaining the experience you need. We wish you success in your trading, and hope you find this book interesting
Spreads, Commissions and Charges
Spreads, Commissions and Charges
Easy-Forex™ Trading Platform is a foreign exchange dealing room, offering its services over the internet and by phone. The main part of its income is generated from the spreads (the difference between BUY and SELL).
Please note: it is recommended that you check with our GLOSSARY, which provides further explanations to many of the terms appearing below.
item Charge / comments
Deposit fee None.
Please note that, as for wire transfers, Easy-Forex™ does not charge fees, however - your bank may charge such fees.
Withdrawal (and profit-taking) fee None.
Please note that, as for wire transfers, Easy-Forex™ does not charge fees, however - your bank may charge such fees.
Trader's account exchange rates No spreads, Converting at mid-rate.
Options(*) No commission. Premium only.
Renewal fee Renewal fee varies between 0.015% and 0.030%, according to tailor-made terms and according to internet / phone trading. Zero on "Islamic" accounts.
Spreads In general, Easy-Forex™ basic spread policy on major currency pairs is:
VIP accounts (min. deal USD1,000,000 /
min. deposit $10,000): 3 pips;
Platinum accounts (min. deal USD250,000 /
min. deposit $5,000): 4 pips;
Gold accounts (min. deal USD50,000 /
min. deposit $500): 5 pips;
Mini accounts (min. deal USD2,500 /
min. deposit $100): 7 pips.
Please note that spreads may vary, under certain market conditions and/or each trader's tailor-made account terms.
However, the actual spread is presented before the trader when he/she opens a deal.
Spreads on Forward(*) points None. Based on mid-rate, no extra charge for interest spreads.
"Islamic accounts" - "Sharia Law" Offering accounts with spreads only, no renewal fee.
Bank charges on transactions None. Not charging the trader per Easy-Forex™ bank costs.
Please note that, as for wire transfers, Easy-Forex™ does not charge fees, however - your bank may charge such fees.
Freeze rate / accept or regret At no charge. Trader may select the current rate and "freeze" it for a few seconds, before approving the deal.
Limit orders (auto-capturing of rates reserved by trader) At no charge.
Guaranteed Stop-Loss and rates At no charge. Rate implemented precisely as defined by trader.
Note that Easy-Forex™ makes any and all efforts to guarantee the rates, when it is able to doing so, unless market conditions prevent delivering the rate selected.
Maintenance Margin or Activity collaterals (in addition to actual margin needed for the deal) None.
(*)in relevant world regions
Real time Foreign Exchange Software
Real time Foreign Exchange Software
How a Foreign Exchange Software Operates in Real Time
Online foreign exchange occurs in real time. Exchange rates are constantly changing, in intervals of seconds. Thus, an online Forex system operates in real time. That means that quotes are accurate for the very moment they are displayed, and in 10 seconds or less, a different rate may be quoted. Also, when a user locks in a rate and executes a transaction, that transaction is immediately processed and the exchange/trade has been executed.
Up-to-date exchange rates
As exchange rates change so rapidly, any Forex software must display the most up-to-date rates to the user. That means that Forex software is continuously communicating with a remote server that provides the current updated exchange rates. The rates that are quoted on Forex software, unlike traditional bank exchange rates, are real, tradable rates. A user may choose to "lock in" and trade at the rate which is currently displayed, (called the freeze rate), which is valid as long as it is displayed. A different rate may be displayed within a few seconds.
Easy-Forex real time Foreign Exchange Software
Easy-Forex offers robust real time foreign exchange software. The Easy-Forex system uses software tools called web services to continuously fetch the most updated exchange rates. From a user's perspective, this is all transparent and he is provided current quotes without the need to refresh the page. This is true in all the real-time elements of Easy-Forex's web-based Forex system: the most recent data is always provided to the user without the need for a page refresh. This includes account status screens such as 'My Position', which is continuously changing due to changes in rates and other real time elements.
Transaction processing and storage
As soon as a transaction is executed, the relevant data is processed securely and sent to the data server where it is stored. A backup is created in a different server farm to ensure data integrity and continuity. All of this happens in real time, with no human intervention.
Easy-Forex guarantees the accuracy, security and integrity of all transactions
Forex software systems
Forex software systems
An overview into modern Forex software systems and the Easy-Forex Trading Platform
Foreign Exchange (Forex) software is designed to allow end users to trade currencies online in a real time, secure, private and efficient manner.
The major issues that a foreign exchange software platform should address are:
•Real-time- providing constantly up-to-date exchange rates in increments of a few seconds. These rates, in contrast to traditional bank rates, are actual, tradable Forex quotes. Once you decide to trade on a currency you can "lock" in a rate and this will be the actual rate at which the transaction will take place.
•Security, privacy and data integrity- for any user performing financial transactions over the Internet, this is a main issue. This point is further emphasized with Forex trading software, where the amounts traded may be significant. Forex trading software must be designed with the highest level of data security, integrity and privacy. Most systems use at least one layer of at least 64-bit SSL encryption, as well as various data backup and recovery methods and procedures.
•24x7 availability - providing updated Forex quotes 24x7 and allowing a trade any time of the week.
Web-based versus downloaded Forex software
Forex software comes in two main forms - web-based and client-side Forex software:
Web-based Forex software system
Web-based Forex software means that all the operations are performed on the vendor's website, pending user verification. That means that users are offered a familiar, web-based interface, to perform their desired operations. The advantages of such a system are:
•No need to download and install proprietary software
•Log in anywhere, anytime. A web-based system allows instant access to a user account, from any Internet connected computer.
•Familiar and friendly, web-based user interface.
Client side Forex software system
Client-side Forex software is a program that a user downloads and installs to gain access to the Forex markets. The software communicates with the vendor's server offering Forex services.
Easy-Forex Trading Platform
Easy-Forex offers a web-based Forex trading system. We believe in making foreign exchange easy, thus we offer a friendly, fast, secure, no-download, web-based Forex system to allow even the novice Forex investor easy access to the Forex markets.
With regard to our backend, Easy-Forex has two different server farms in different locations to ensure backup and recovery. Each server farm uses load-balancing software to balance the load handled by each node and to ensure an immediate, real time response to any user operation.
We accept credit cards, pending approval by the credit card company. Please read more about the robustness of our system in the sections describing the security and real-time aspects of our Forex software
What is Forex trading?
What is Forex trading?
An overview of the foreign exchange (Forex) market
The Forex market is a nonstop cash market where currencies of nations are traded, typically via brokers. Foreign currencies are constantly and simultaneously bought and sold across local and global markets and traders' investments increase or decrease in value based upon currency movements. Foreign exchange market conditions can change at any time in response to real-time events.
The main enticements of currency dealing to private investors and attractions for short-term Forex trading are:
•24-hour trading, 5 days a week with nonstop access to global Forex dealers.
•An enormous liquid market making it easy to trade most currencies.
•Volatile markets offering profit opportunities.
•Standard instruments for controlling risk exposure.
•The ability to profit in rising or falling markets.
•Leveraged trading with low margin requirements.
•Many options for zero commission trading.
Forex trading
The investor's goal in Forex trading is to profit from foreign currency movements. Forex trading or currency trading is always done in currency pairs. For example, the exchange rate of EUR/USD on Aug 26th, 2003 was 1.0857. This number is also referred to as a "Forex rate" or just "rate" for short. If the investor had bought 1000 euros on that date, he would have paid 1085.70 U.S. dollars. One year later, the Forex rate was 1.2083, which means that the value of the euro (the numerator of the EUR/USD ratio) increased in relation to the U.S. dollar. The investor could now sell the 1000 euros in order to receive 1208.30 dollars. Therefore, the investor would have USD 122.60 more than what he had started one year earlier. However, to know if the investor made a good investment, one needs to compare this investment option to alternative investments. At the very minimum, the return on investment (ROI) should be compared to the return on a "risk-free" investment. One example of a risk-free investment is long-term U.S. government bonds since there is practically no chance for a default, i.e. the U.S. government going bankrupt or being unable or unwilling to pay its debt obligation.
When trading currencies, trade only when you expect the currency you are buying to increase in value relative to the currency you are selling. If the currency you are buying does increase in value, you must sell back the other currency in order to lock in a profit. An open trade (also called an open position) is a trade in which a trader has bought or sold a particular currency pair and has not yet sold or bought back the equivalent amount to close the position.
However, it is estimated that anywhere from 70%-90% of the FX market is speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end; rather, they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency.
Exchange rate
Because currencies are traded in pairs and exchanged one against the other when traded, the rate at which they are exchanged is called the exchange rate. The majority of the currencies are traded against the US dollar (USD). The four next-most traded currencies are the euro (EUR), the Japanese yen (JPY), the British pound sterling (GBP) and the Swiss franc (CHF). These five currencies make up the majority of the market and are called the major currencies or "the Majors". Some sources also include the Australian dollar (AUD) within the group of major currencies.
The first currency in the exchange pair is referred to as the base currency and the second currency as the counter or quote currency. The counter or quote currency is thus the numerator in the ratio, and the base currency is the denominator. The value of the base currency (denominator) is always 1. Therefore, the exchange rate tells a buyer how much of the counter or quote currency must be paid to obtain one unit of the base currency. The exchange rate also tells a seller how much is received in the counter or quote currency when selling one unit of the base currency. For example, an exchange rate for EUR/USD of 1.2083 specifies to the buyer of euros that 1.2083 USD must be paid to obtain 1 euro.
At any given point, time and place, if an investor buys any currency and immediately sells it - and no change in the exchange rate has occurred - the investor will lose money. The reason for this is that the bid price, which represents how much will be received in the counter or quote currency when selling one unit of the base currency, is always lower than the ask price, which represents how much must be paid in the counter or quote currency when buying one unit of the base currency. For instance, the EUR/USD bid/ask currency rates at your bank may be 1.2015/1.3015, representing a spread of 1000 pips (also called points, one pip = 0.0001), which is very high in comparison to the bid/ask currency rates that online Forex investors commonly encounter, such as 1.2015/1.2020, with a spread of 5 pips. In general, smaller spreads are better for Forex investors since even they require a smaller movement in exchange rates in order to profit from a trade.
Margin
Banks and/or online trading providers need collateral to ensure that the investor can pay in case of a loss. The collateral is called the margin and is also known as minimum security in Forex markets. In practice, it is a deposit to the trader's account that is intended to cover any currency trading losses in the future.
Margin enables private investors to trade in markets that have high minimum units of trading by allowing traders to hold a much larger position than their account value. Margin trading also enhances the rate of profit, but has the tendency to inflate rates of loss, on top of systemic risk.
Leveraged financing
Leveraged financing, i.e., the use of credit, such as a trade purchased on a margin, is very common in Forex. The loan/leveraged in the margined account is collateralized by your initial deposit. This may result in being able to control USD 100,000 for as little as USD 1,000.
Five ways private investors can trade in Forex directly or indirectly:•The spot market
•Forwards and futures
•Options
•Contracts for difference
•Spread betting
A spot transaction
A spot transaction is a straightforward exchange of one currency for another. The spot rate is the current market price, also called the benchmark price. Spot transactions do not require immediate settlement, or payment "on the spot." The settlement date, or "value date," is the second business day after the "deal date" (or "trade date") on which the transaction is agreed to by the two traders. The two-day period provides time to confirm the agreement and arrange the clearing and necessary debiting and crediting of bank accounts in various international locations.
Risks
Although Forex trading can lead to very profitable results, there are risks involved: exchange rate risks, interest rate risks, credit risks, and country risks. Approximately 80% of all currency transactions last a period of seven days or less, while more than 40% last fewer than two days. Given the extremely short lifespan of the typical trade, technical indicators heavily influence entry, exit and order placement decisions.
Dollar-euro currency exchange
Dollar-euro currency exchange
This article provides an overview of the factors affecting the leading currency pair: euro-dollar exchange, commonly expressed as EUR/USD.
The euro to dollar exchange rate is the price at which the world demand for US dollars equals the world supply of euros. Regardless of geographical origin, a rise in the world demand for euros leads to an appreciation of the euro.
Factors affecting exchange rates
Four factors are identified as fundamental determinants of the real euro to dollar exchange rate:
•The international real interest rate differential
•Relative prices in the traded and non-traded goods sectors
•The real oil price
•The relative fiscal position
The nominal bilateral dollar to euro exchange is the exchange rate that attracts the most attention. Notwithstanding the comparative importance of euro to US dollar bilateral trade links, trade with the UK is, to some extent, more important for the Euro zone than is trade with the US. The dollar and the euro have a strong predisposition to run together in the very short run, but sometimes there can be significant discrepancies. The very strong appreciation of the dollar against the euro in 2003 is one example of these discrepancies.
In the long run, the correlation between the bilateral dollar to euro exchange rate, and different measures of the effective exchange rate of Euroland, have been rather high, especially if one looks at the effective real exchange rate. As inflation is at very similar levels in the US and the Euro area, there is no need to adjust the dollar to euro rate for inflation differentials, but because the Euro zone also trades intensively with countries that have relatively high inflation rates (e.g. some countries in Central and Eastern Europe, Turkey, etc.), it is more important to downplay nominal exchange rate measures by looking at relative price and cost developments.
The fall of the dollar
The steady and orderly decline of the dollar from early 2002 to early 2004 against the euro, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and a few other currencies (i.e., its trade-weighted average, which is what counts for purposes of trade adjustment), while significant, has still only amounted to about 10 percent.
There are two reasons why concerns about a free fall of the dollar should not be worth consideration. The first is that the US external deficit will stay high only if US growth remains vigorous. But if the US continues to grow strongly, it will also retain a strong attraction for foreign capital, which should support the dollar. The second reason is that the attempts by the monetary authorities in Asia to keep their currencies weak will probably not work.
The basic theories underlying the dollar to euro exchange rate:
Law of One Price: In competitive markets free of transportation cost barriers to trade, identical products sold in different countries must sell at the same price when the prices are stated in terms of the same currency.
Interest rate effects: If capital is allowed to flow freely, exchange rates become stable at a point where equality of interest is established.
The dual forces of supply and demand determine euro vs. dollar exchange rates. Various factors affect these two forces, which in turn affect the exchange rates:
The business environment: Positive indications (in terms of government policy, competitive advantages, market size, etc.) increase the demand for the currency, as more and more enterprises want to invest there.
Stock market: The major stock indices also have a correlation with the currency rates.
Political factors: All exchange rates are susceptible to political instability and anticipations about the new government. For example, political or financial instability in Russia is also a flag for the euro to US dollar exchange because of the substantial amount of German investments directed to Russia.
Economic data: Economic data such as labor reports (payrolls, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings), consumer price indices (CPI), producer price indices (PPI), gross domestic product (GDP), international trade, productivity, industrial production, consumer confidence etc., also affect fluctuations in currency exchange rates.
Confidence in a currency is the greatest determinant of the real euro-dollar exchange rate. Decisions are made based on expected future developments that may affect the currency. A EUR/USD exchange can operate under one of four main types of exchange rate systems:
Fully fixed exchange rates
In a fixed exchange rate system, the government (or the central bank acting on its behalf) intervenes in the currency market in order to keep the exchange rate close to a fixed target. It is committed to a single fixed exchange rate and does not allow major fluctuations from this central rate.
Semi-fixed exchange rates
Currency can move inside permitted ranges of fluctuation. The exchange rate is the dominant target of economic policy-making, interest rates are set to meet the target and the exchange rate is given a specific target.
Free floating
The value of the currency is determined solely by market supply and demand forces in the foreign exchange market. Trade flows and capital flows are the main factors affecting the exchange rate. A floating exchange rate system: Monetary system in which exchange rates are allowed to move due to market forces without intervention by national governments. For example, the Bank of England does not actively intervene in the currency markets to achieve a desired exchange rate level. With floating exchange rates, changes in market demand and supply cause a currency to change in value. Pure free floating exchange rates are rare - most governments at one time or another seek to "manage" the value of their currency through changes in interest rates and other controls.
Managed floating exchange rates
Governments normally engage in managed floating if not part of a fixed exchange rate system.
The advantages of fixed exchange rates are the disadvantages of floating rates:
Fixed rates provide greater certainty for exporters and importers and, under normal circumstances, there is less speculative activity - although this depends on whether the dealers in the foreign exchange markets regard a given fixed exchange rate as appropriate and credible.
Advantages of floating exchange rates
Fluctuations in the exchange rate can provide an automatic adjustment for countries with a large balance of payments deficit. A second key advantage of floating exchange rates is that it gives the government/monetary authorities flexibility in determining interest rates.
Easy-Forex™ enables its clients to perform DAY-TRADING in gold and silver rates against the US dollar.
New at Easy-Forex™:
Day trading with gold and silver
Easy-Forex™ enables its clients to perform DAY-TRADING in gold and silver rates against the US dollar.
The gold symbol is XAU, the silver symbol is XAG.
The price of gold refers to its price per ounce in USD. For example, if the price is 612.97, it means that an ounce of gold is traded for USD 612.97. Similarly, the price of silver as well refers to its price per ounce in USD. For example, if the price is 11.853, it means that an ounce of silver is traded for USD 11.853.
There are several weighing methods in the precious metals and stones markets, where the most common is TROY (a TROY ounce equals approximately 31.10 grams; where an AV ounce equals approximately 28.35 grams).
The trading with gold and silver rates is performed as it is done with foreign currencies, by the OTC method (over the counter). That means that the trading is performed directly between the two involved parties, and not via a third party which consolidates the trade (such as an exchange market).
Trading with gold or silver rates, as with foreign currency rates, is non-delivery trading, which does not require the "physical" purchase or sale of the "commodity".
Easy-Forex™ clients and traders, who wish to perform Day-Trading with gold or silver rates, will regard the gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) just as they treat any other foreign currency, however – the trade is done only against the US dollar (USD).
Please note that Gold and Silver Trading begins on Sunday 23:15 GMT and ends 22:00 GMT Friday night. Gold is mostly traded worldwide between 01:00-17:30 GMT, Monday to Friday, and that spreads are usually higher during out-of-business hours.
Forex - EUR/JPY gains as bottom fishers look past German data
Forex - EUR/JPY gains as bottom fishers look past German data
By Forexpros | Forex News | Sep 25, 2012 01:58AM GMT | Add a Comment
ForexprosArticle
Forexpros - The euro rose against the yen on Tuesday as investors viewed the single currency as oversold versus safe-haven currencies.
Weak German business sentiment figures caught investors off guard earlier, sparking a euro selloff.
In Asian trading on Tuesday, EUR/JPY hit 100.73, up 0.06%, up from a low of 100.71 and off a high of 100.83.
The pair sought to test support at 100.36, Monday's low, and resistance at 101.41, Monday's high.
The euro dropped in U.S. and European session earlier after the Ifo institute said its business climate index for Germany fell to its lowest level since March 2010, stoking concerns that the European debt crisis is fraying nerves in Europe's largest economy.
The Ifo index fell to 101.4 in September from 102.3 in August, the fifth consecutive monthly decline and well below expectations for a 102.5 reading.
Ongoing uncertainty as to whether Spain will seek a bailout prompted investors to seek safety in the yen and greenback as well.
On Thursday Madrid will unveil a draft budget for next year and announce structural reforms, while the results of the country's bank stress tests are due on Friday.
Elsewhere, the Moody’s ratings agency should wrap up a ratings review on Spain later this week.
Spain’s economy minister said the country would not rush to seek external financial aid, though press reports have said the country is quietly drawing up blueprints to formally seek assistance.
Disagreements between France and Germany over centralizing banking supervision pressured the euro against the safe-haven yen as well.
Germany and France are at odds over a timeframe to centralize banking supervision, with Germany hoping to delay giving the European Central Bank more power to oversee the eurozone's financial institutions.
By Tuesday, however, investors felt the single currency was oversold and snapped up nicely priced euro positions.
The euro, meanwhile, was up against the pound and up against the Canadian dollar, with EUR/GBP trading up 0.04% at 0.7975 and EUR/CAD trading up 0.02% at 1.2659.
Later Tuesday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is due to speak, while Germany will release data on consumer climate, an important indicator of consumer spending.
Euro finds support following Schauble comments
Euro finds support following Schauble comments
ForexprosArticle
Forexpros - The euro pulled back from session lows against the other major currencies on Tuesday, following comments by Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble, who said defending the single currency was "worth any effort".
During European early afternoon trade, the euro edged higher against the U.S. dollar, with EUR/USD inching up 0.04% to 1.2934.
Speaking during a visit to Helsinki, Schauble said European policymakers should do everything in their power to protect the euro.
The euro weakened earlier following German media reports that lawyers for Germany's central bank are examining the legality of the European Central Bank's bond purchasing program, setting the stage for a possible legal challenge.
Elsewhere, Spain saw borrowing costs rise at an auction of short-term debt, reflecting lingering uncertainty over whether Madrid will request a full scale sovereign bailout.
On Thursday Madrid is to present its draft budget for next year and announce structural reforms, while the results of bank stress tests are due on Friday. In addition, ratings agency Moody’s is expected to complete a ratings review on Spain later this week.
Meanwhile, concerns over Greece continued to weigh, as Athens prepared to present a package of spending cuts at the end of this week, amid fears that the country’s budget shortfall could be larger than expected.
The single currency pulled away from a two-week low against the pound, with EUR/GBP down just 0.06% at 0.7967.
In the U.K., senior Bank of England policymaker Paul Fisher said earlier that the bond buying scheme announced by the ECB earlier this month appears to have calmed financial markets and could lay the foundations to resolve the region's debt crisis.
The euro was fractionally lower against the yen and the Swiss franc, with EUR/JPY dipping 0.04% to 100.62 and EUR/CHF inching down 0.07% to 1.2091.
Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan said earlier Tuesday that it is still too early to say if the crisis in the euro zone is easing despite falling sovereign bond yields and reiterated that downside risks to the Swiss economy remain high.
The shared currency was mixed against the Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars, with EUR/AUD inching down 0.02% to 1.2400, EUR/NZD down 0.20% to 1.5681 and EUR/CAD easing up 0.13% to 1.2671.
Later in the session, ECB President Mario Draghi was to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin.
Dollar turns broadly lower after German comments
Dollar turns broadly lower after German comments
By Forexpros | Forex News | Sep 25, 2012 01:02PM GMT | Add a Comment
ForexprosArticle
Forexpros - The U.S. dollar was turned broadly lower against its major counterparts on Tuesday, following upbeat comments by Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble, but sentiment remained under pressure amid uncertainty over the prospects for a Spanish bailout.
During European afternoon trade, the dollar was higher against the euro, with EUR/USD rising 0.19% to 1.2955.
Speaking during a visit to Helsinki, Mr. Schauble said European policymakers should do everything in their power to protect the single currency and said defending the euro was "worth any effort".
But the euro remained under pressure following German media reports that lawyers for Germany's central bank are examining the legality of the European Central Bank's bond purchasing program, setting the stage for a possible legal challenge.
Elsewhere, Spain saw borrowing costs rise at an auction of short-term debt earlier, reflecting lingering uncertainty over whether Madrid will request a full scale sovereign bailout.
On Thursday Madrid is to present its draft budget for next year and announce structural reforms, while the results of bank stress tests are due on Friday. In addition, ratings agency Moody’s is expected to complete a ratings review on Spain later this week.
Meanwhile, concerns over Greece continued to weigh, as Athens prepared to present a package of spending cuts at the end of this week, amid fears that the country’s budget shortfall could be larger than expected.
The greenback was also lower against the pound, with GBP/USD adding 0.17% to 1.6246.
In the U.K., data released by the British Bankers Association showed that the number of mortgage approvals rose unexpectedly in August.
The BAA said mortgage approvals totaled 30,533 in August, up from an upwardly revised 28,800 in July. Economists had forecast approvals to fall to 28,600 in August.
Elsewhere, the greenback was lower against the yen and the Swiss franc, with USD/JPY losing 0.15% to hit 77.74 and USD/CHF falling 0.24% to 0.9336.
Speaking earlier, Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan said it was still too early to say if the crisis in the euro zone is easing despite falling sovereign bond yields and reiterated that downside risks to the Swiss economy remain high.
The greenback was lower against its Canadian, Australian and New Zealand counterparts, with USD/CAD slipping 0.14% to 0.9774, AUD/USD rising 0.22% to 1.0447 and NZD/USD climbing 0.41%, to hit 0.8263.
Official data showed earlier that Canada's core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, rose more-than-expected in July, ticking up 0.4% after a 0.4% decline the previous month.
Retail sales rose 0.7%, beating expectations for a 0,3% increase and following a 0.3% fall in June.
The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.21% to 79.42.
Later in the day, the U.S. was to release data on house prices followed by a report on consumer confidence.
In addition, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi was to meet with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin.
Forex - EUR/USD higher on German words, upbeat U.S. data
Forex - EUR/USD higher on German words, upbeat U.S. data
ForexprosArticle
Forexpros - The euro traded higher against the U.S. dollar Tuesday, as upbeat U.S. economic data and bullish commentary from Germany's finance minister helped lift single currency sentiment but ongoing Spanish woes kept gains in check.
EUR/USD pulled away from 1.2888 the pair's lowest since September 13, to hit 1.2943 during U.S. afternoon trade, climbing 0.10%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2853, the low of September 13 and near-term resistance at 1.2989, Monday's high.
Single currency sentiment was lifted following comments by German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schauble, who said European policymakers should do everything in their power to protect the single currency, adding that defending the euro was "worth any effort".
Risk appetite found support after a report by the Conference Board said that its U.S. consumer confidence index rose to a seven-month high of 70.3 this month, compared to expectations for a reading of 63.0.
A separate report by Standard & Poor’s and Case-Shiller showed that house price inflation rose more-than-expected in July from a year earlier.
The S&P/CS House Price Index rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2% in July, the biggest 12-month advance since August 2010, compared to expectations for a 1.0% increase.
The euro weakened against the greenback earlier after German media reports that lawyers for the German central bank are examining the legality of the European Central Bank's bond purchasing program, setting the stage for a possible legal challenge.
Meanwhile, Spain saw borrowing costs rise at an auction of short-term debt on Tuesday, reflecting lingering uncertainty over whether Madrid will request a full scale sovereign bailout.
The euro was fractionally higher against the broadly stronger pound, with EUR/GBP inching up 0.04% to 0.7975 and gained ground against the yen, with EUR/JPY rising 0.19% to 100.85.
In other news Tuesday, ECB President Mario Draghi said the debt crisis in the euro zone is not over and urged governments to continue to take decisive measures to ensure the future of the bloc.
Central bank buying pushes gold higher on session
Forexpros - Gold futures moved higherTuesday, after a report revealed world central banks increased holdings of the precious metal, while recent stimulus measure also bolstered demand.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for December delivery traded at USD1,764.85 a troy ounce during U.S. morning trade, easing higher by 0.01%.
Gold futures rose to a high of USD1,787.55 a troy ounce Thursday, the highest level since February 29.
Gold prices were likely to find short-term support at USD1,751.95 a troy ounce, the low from September 18 and resistance at USD1,792.25, the high from February 29.
Gold prices were boosted after a report from the International Monetary Fund showed that word central banks increased their holding of the precious metal in July and August, continuing a pattern among central banks to hold more bullion.
The IMF's international finance statistics report said South Korea raised its holdings of gold by nearly 16 tonnes in July. The country has doubled its bullion reserves in the past 12 months after being one of the largest gold buyers in 2011.
The report said Paraguay boosted its reserves from a few thousand ounces to more than 8 tonnes in July.
Demand for gold continued to remain underpinned by expectations central banks around the world will continue to introduce monetary easing measures to stimulate the global economy.
Gold futures have gained nearly 10% since the beginning of August, buoyed by recent stimulus efforts by major central banks around the world.
In the U.S., a report by the Conference Board said that its consumer confidence index rose to a seven-month high of 70.3 this month, compared to expectations for a reading of 63.0.
A separate report by Standard & Poor’s and Case-Shiller showed that house price inflation rose more-than-expected in July from a year earlier.
The S&P/CS House Price Index rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2% in July, the biggest 12-month advance since August 2010, compared to expectations for a 1.0% increase.
The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six other major currencies, was down 0.06% to 79.53 following the data.
Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for December delivery slipped 0.22% to USD33.910 a troy ounce, while copper for December delivery advanced 0.65% to trade at USD3.755 a pound.
Nothing Short Of Bullish
While we have written about Silver here and there, we've not covered it publicly in over a year. The market made an obvious cyclical top last spring and the tremendous gains from late 2008 into 2011 would need to be corrected and digested. From May to July the market tested its lows successfully and formed support. The recent advance confirmed the lows and confirms that we are likely in a new cyclical bull market. Based on the technicals, Silver and silver stocks continue to show tremendous long-term potential.
Below is a chart of our growth producer index, which features 10 growth-oriented producers and is weighted somewhat by market capitalization. The market had a rip-roaring advance, which lasted a total of 27 months. The correction lasted about 14 months (a 50% time retracement) and retraced about 50% in price. As you can see from the circles, the low occurred in May and was retested multiple times over the summer.
Silver's Growth
Nothing Short Of 'Bullish'
The long-term technical outlook for silver producers is potentially nothing short of super bullish. We say potentially because nothing is certain in this business. The market has formed a textbook cup and handle pattern. Note that the beginning of the handle is higher than the start of the cup. In other words, this shows more strength than a typical pattern in which those two points are equal or in which the start of the handle is lower than the start of the cup.
Mild Correction
Moreover, we can visually see that the correction in a long-term sense was relatively mild. Mathematically speaking it was dramatic (about 50% in percentage terms) but much less dramatic than 2007-2008 (90%) and less dramatic than 2004 (60%). A smaller correction can be a sign of a market building internal strength for the next impulsive advance.
The $50 Target
The super bullish outcome would be driven by Silver making a run at and eventually surpassing $50/oz. The equities are closer to their all-time highs and will likely break to new highs before Silver clears $50/oz. Certainly, the “super bullish outcome” is predicated on Silver breaking through $50/oz.
Silver Spot Price
What We Know
We know a few things. First, we are in a new cyclical bull market. Second, we are moving closer to the beginning of the bubble phase in this bull market. Third, in a bull move, Silver acts like Gold on steroids. It’s clear from the charts that Silver and silver stocks are in position for a potentially spectacular move over the next three to five years. We believe that the silver stocks can break to new highs in the next 12 months and that Silver won’t be far behind. The bubble phase is certainly several years away but these charts illustrate the potential for massive breakouts which would generate the momentum that leads into a bubble.
In the meantime, Silver and the silver stocks have rebounded strongly. Similar to the gold stocks, we see an upcoming pause or pullback in silver stocks over the next month. October is typically a weak month. Many stocks have rebounded substantially and with strong momentum. A pause or correction in October stands between gold and silver miners and a retest of old highs in the winter. A correction would also mark a great buying opportunity ahead of much higher prices.
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