DAX investors’ confidence is back, prompted by purchases deemed advantageous. But the New Year lethargy has still not been shaken off.
StockThis text is a translation of the German version.
12 January 2011. FRANKFURT (Börse Frankfurt). Portugal has investors waiting in suspense: while Berlin insists that it’s not pressing Lisbon to accept rescue funds, other eurozone officials assure us that the country doesn’t even need financial support. Nevertheless, the EU Commission and the EFSF are ready to offer up credit help as a precaution. Despite this, Germany’s bankers expressed their fears of an eventual eurozone member’s bankruptcy in an Ernst & Young poll, where 47 percent of the respondents think at least one state will go belly-up. Meanwhile, Japan offered its support for the economic union this week by pledging to buy 20 percent of the EFSF bonds scheduled for sale this month. Some commentators judged Finance Minister Noda’s show of faith in the rescue fund as reason enough to spark buying interest in Europe’s regional equity markets, but the emphasis here was on show. Each of the eurozone’s members have backed its respective portion the euro-bonds with a 120 percent guarantee – no other investment in the region could be more secure. Japan, like China, has its own interests at heart through its investments in Europe, such as improved trade relations, access to technology, and the acquisition of prime assets.
Sentiment indicators
The blue bars in the diagram represent the amount of optimism in the market. To calculate this, the number of optimists are compared to the number of pessimists and weighted against the number of neutral votes. However, the absolute values of the figures are not relevant for analysts, but rather how they changed in the course of the period surveyed.
In the first of this year’s sentiment surveys by Börse Frankfurt medium-term investors were still a bit cautious, but now a week later they appear to have regained their confidence. Fund managers enlarged the bullish camp by 10 percent – most of them streaming out of the bearish field – to approach a level of optimism in the Bull/Bear-Index reached in the last weeks of 2010. Surely the DAX market’s price development played a role in getting the new bulls on board; they got a chance to purchase some bargain blue chips in the waning days of last year and now look back to 2010’s closing quote at 6,914 as merely a reference point. Once again, however, it does not look as if investors are taking their cue from the US data. The non-farm payroll numbers continue to rankle and, as the Fed will assume a more hawkish tenor through the change of FOMC voting members at this year’s first meeting on January 25-26, the very continuation of QE could possibly be called into question.
The recent buying-in hasn’t yet roused the DAX; it approaches the year-high again today, but this year’s trading range is still relatively narrow. The significant support usually supplied by long-term demand or foreign investment is still missing, and that absence could eventually sour this market barometer.
Christin Stock, cognitrend
Hiç yorum yok:
Yorum Gönder